Session 7 : Modeling Time to Recovery from Neonatal Hypothermia Among Neonates Admitted to Pawe Generalized Hospital, Metekel Zone, Ethiopia

Background: Neonatal hypothermia (body temperature below 36.5°C) is a major threat to newborn survival, contributing significantly to global child mortality. Ethiopia, a sub- Saharan African country with high prevalence of hypothermia, experiences the negative impact on its neonatal mortality rates. This study aimed to model the time-to-recovery from neonatal hypothermia among neonates admitted to Pawe Generalized Hospital (PGH), Metekel zone, Ethiopia Methods: A Retrospective follow-up study designs at PGH from January 2022 to December 2023 was conducted. The study included 490 neonates who admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit at PGH. A survival analysis was employed to model time to recovery; non- parametric method was used to compare survival status among neonate in different categories. Semi-parametric, Accelerated Failure Time and frailty model were fitted to determine determinant factor of time to recovery. The best-fitting model was selected based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Results:The median recovery time for neonates at PGH was five days. All fitted shared frailty models showed a significant frailty effect. Based on AIC and BIC, the log-logistic gamma shared frailty model was preferred (AIC=546.48, BIC=680.70). Several factors like; maternal age (20-29 and 30-39 years old), urban residence, family income above average, female sex of the newborn, lower birth weight categories ( Conclusion: Half of the hypothermic neonates at PGH recovered within five days, demonstrating the variability in recovery times. Statistical analysis revealed unmeasured factors influencing recovery, with the log-logistic gamma shared frailty model providing the best fit. Maternal characteristics, socioeconomic factors, newborn demographics, birth complications, and admission problems were identified as significant determinants of recovery time from neonatal hypothermia.