Research on Global Shipping Network Vulnerability Based on Cascade Failure

This paper constructs the global shipping network for 2015 and 2020 based on the route data of the top 20 global shipping companies and explores the vulnerability of the shipping network under different attack strategies through a cascading failure model. Research has shown that: (1) under the cascading failure model, the shipping networks in 2015 and 2020 exhibited robustness under random attacks and maximum clustering coefficient attacks; During maximum degree attacks and maximum betweeness attacks, the network exhibits fragility, and when Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai ports fail simultaneously, it will cause substantial damage to the network. (2) In 2015, the shipping network was affected by cascading effects, and the main ports that failed were Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, and other East Asian and North American ports; In 2020, the ports that failed were transferred to the vast majority of East Asian ports such as Busan, Dalian, and Yokohama, making them vulnerable centers of the network. (3) The initial load of a node is negatively correlated with the number of failed nodes, while the rate of load growth is positively correlated with the number of failed nodes. When the parameters are constant, the replacement ports of failed nodes are difficult to meet the global shipping transportation needs. Singapore City, Hong Kong, and Shanghai are the centers of the global shipping network. After experiencing multiple iterative attacks, Antwerp Port, Ningde, and Songzwal can maximize the demand for connecting and transferring after the failure of the central ports.