Predicting the unpredictable : Analyzing adaptation planning for increasing sea levels in Swedish municipalities

This research aims to explore how the Swedish municipalities Vellinge and Kristianstad plan for future increasing sea levels. Analyzing municipal documents highlights how the strategies demonstrate characteristics from three clusters within the adaptation pathways approach; performance, multi-stakeholder, and transformation-oriented pathways, and how vertical and horizontal governance shapes possibilities for local adaptation. Results of this research demonstrates that Kristianstad and Vellinge reflect a performance oriented adaptation, where protective measures are of technical nature based on calculations. Elements of a multi-stakeholder approach can also be distinguished, where Vellinge presents comprehensive cross-border collaborations, while Kristianstad is more prone to work internally and cooperate with diverse actors. Strategies in Kristianstad also show characteristics of a transformative approach through solutions of managed retreat, which challenge current structures in land-use management. Vellinge is currently missing such a vision, making them less future-oriented and in need of a transformative mindset. The research also highlights the tension between national and local interests, demonstrating how the vertical governance limits flexibility in planning, but also how horizontal governance can be supportive and increase efficiency. Applying the adaptation pathways approach and governance structures has clarified the biggest challenges and opportunities in each strategy, and what measures may be taken to promote local adaptation. Overall, the research states that one cluster within adaptation pathways is most likely not sufficient for establishing resilient climate adaptation, rather that the integration and combination of multiple clusters can shape and foster local possibilities for adaptation.