Modeling Recreational Risk Factors on the Landscape: A Predictive GIS Analysis of Recreation Accident Response near North Bend, Washington.

Search and Rescue (SAR) teams in Washington respond to approximately 900 incidents annually, many stemming from outdoor recreation near Interstate 90 surrounding North Bend. This study utilized predictive GIS analysis to identify areas of concern within state lands, including Mount Si and Middle Fork Snoqualmie Natural Resource Conservation Areas, Raging River State Forest, and Rattlesnake Mountain Scenic Area. The predictive model was calibrated using SAR responses to hiking-related incidents between March and November from 2020 to 2023, and incorporated an analysis of risk factors influencing recreationalist incident probability. This research then developed a decision support system to aid land managers in proactively mitigating risk factors and improving emergency response times. The study identified areas with a high probability of SAR response to potential incidents near popular trails up Mount Si, Mailbox Peak, and Teneriffe Falls. Areas of concern were characterized by proximity to roads and trails, steeper slopes, locations farther up the trail from the trailhead, and the presence of previous incident sites. Policy recommendations include improved signage about injury risk factors on the landscape, potential reopening of closed roads for SAR access, and encouraging recreationalists to report trail conditions through online platforms. Implementing these measures could significantly improve recreation safety and emergency response efficiency in the region. An informed approach to SAR incident response can mean the difference between life and death, reduce incident severity through quicker intervention, and improve response times by shortening the duration before someone is assisted.