Mathematical model for tripledemic disease (COVID-19, RSV, and Influenza)

The concurrent circulation of COVID-19, Influenza (Flu), and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), collectively termed the ”Tripledemic,” poses substantial public health challenges due to their overlapping transmission patterns and compounded healthcare demands. The discovery of COVID-19 vaccines such as Moderna (mRNA-1273, Spikevax) and Johnson & Johnson’s, among other vaccines, has reduced COVID-19 cases but has not completely eradicated the disease. In the 2022-2023 season, the world witnessed a ”tripledemic” of Flu, COVID-19, and RSV. We propose Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) and SusceptibleExposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical models to estimate transmission rates, compute the basic reproduction number, forecast infections, and analyze seasonal variations and comparative transmission dynamics among the three diseases. Our models are applied to seasonal weekly rate cases reported by the CDC from fifteen sites across the United States. Our results indicate that COVID-19 and RSV will eventually die out. However, influenza is expected to continue to circulate