Impacto Estimado en la Recaudación del Gravamen Arancelario en Bolivia ante la Convergencia con el Arancel Externo Común del MERCOSUR

This article estimates the fiscal and productive effects of implementing the Common External Tariff (CET) of MERCOSUR in Bolivia, focusing on its impact on customs revenue from the Tariff Duty (GA) and sectoral protection. Using official data from Bolivia’s National Institute of Statistics and the Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, the study analyzes the current tariff structure and compares it with the CET composition for the year 2024, based on ISIC Rev. 3 classification. The findings reveal that adopting the CET would result in an estimated net increase of 7.8% in customs revenue, mainly driven by higher tariffs on manufactured goods, which account for more than 97% of the imported CIF value. However, sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and community services would experience a significant reduction in effective protection, posing challenges to their competitiveness. The study concludes that CET convergence should be implemented gradually and selectively, with careful attention to vulnerable sectors. The article provides empirical evidence to support the formulation of public policies that ensure a balanced tariff transition, safeguarding fiscal revenue while preserving the sustainability of Bolivia’s productive matrix.