Exploring the Factors Leading to Diffusion of Alternative Fuels Using a Socio-Technical Transition Approach—A Case Study of LNG as a Marine Fuel in Norway

The maritime shipping sector needs to transition towards a low- or zero-emission future to align with the 1.5 °C temperature goal and the recently adopted and revised greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). A significant research gap exists in understanding how socio-economic and socio-political processes can lead to the adoption of alternative marine fuels that will be essential in meeting the aforementioned goals. The aim of this paper is to use a case study of an existing transition to understand how diffusion takes place, specifically how the adoption of liquified natural gas (LNG) in Norway has unfolded and what lessons can be learnt from this process. To answer this question, a combination of semi-structured interviews with key maritime stakeholders and documentary evidence was collected covering the period from 1985 to 2015. The collected data were analysed through a content analysis approach applying the multilevel perspective (MLP) as a heuristic. The qualitative results paint an interesting picture of the changing attitudes towards LNG as a marine fuel in Norway. In the early years, the adoption of LNG was primarily driven by air pollution and political considerations of using Norwegian natural gas, which over time, evolved into a more focused maritime paradigm painted through the lens of the Norwegian maritime industry under wider regulatory developments such as emission control areas (ECAs). By the 2010s, these drivers were superseded by GHG considerations such as methane slip concerns and a less favourable natural gas market leading to a slowdown of LNG adoption. These findings provide valuable insights for understanding future adoption dynamics of alternative zero-emission fuels, particularly in relation to the role of strong technology champions, institutional modification requirements, and starting conditions for a transition.