An Eye for an Eye, a tooth for a tooth : How the counterinsurgent's setbacks leads to civilian casualties

Even though decisionmakers and researchers advocate for the reduction of it, many civilian casualties still occur during counterinsurgency operations. Force protection, killing insurgents and protecting civilians is proclaimed to be impossible in combination. Previous research attributes the causes of civilian casualties to factors at the soldier, unit and organizational levels. The research is inadequate in exploring how the counterinsurgency force’s progress in its area of operations affects the number of civilian casualties. Hultman’s Theory of civilian casualties contributes to filling this gap by explaining how the counterinsurgents setbacks, as measured by their fatalities, lead to higher rates of civilian casualties. This study is theory-testing and aims to independently test the theory on a new case against alternative explanations. The Iraq War in 2006, is studied through statistical analysis because of the case’s intensity and specific alternative explanation of civilian casualties. The study finds the counterinsurgency forces’ fatalities to positively correlate with civilian casualties, with statistical significance. Thus, Hultman’s theory is found to have explanatory power in the case of the Iraq War in 2006. However, the alternative explanations lessen the theory’s explanatory ability and demonstrates that it does not explain the entire phenomenon.