Estimating public transport demand in Skellefteå : Case study on a planned residential area

In the advent of increasing awareness of environmental and social issues, there has been much focus on ensuring that urban development continues in a sustainable manner. Urban transportation is one of many fields where such concerns have come to shape planning. One example are the goals of providing public transportation as a viable alternative to automobile transport. Part of this process involves providing appropriate public transport infrastructure according to potential demand by the population. This thesis constituted a case study focused on methods of estimating public transport demand for a yet to be built residential area in Skellefteå, Sweden, and understanding how it would affect travel time along the bus line. By using municipal statistics as a basis for calculation, the study aimed to explore methods of calculating public transport demand for a planned residential area, along with producing preliminary estimates of said demand by emulating various scenarios. Results showed that the residential area would induce significant demand on public transport if it were to exist in today’s environment. Such an increase could require more developed transport infrastructure to meet demand, and the new area would induce an increased travel time for certain bus stops on the line if the current bus line is rerouted into the new area. There is however a need for more detailed information if the calculation model is to more accurate reflect the urban conditions of Skellefteå. Future studies could provide additional information on factors of influence on public transport demand, so as to create more detailed calculations moving forward.