Emerging Threats in Temperate Climates: A Stochastic Analysis of Autochthonous Dengue Transmission in Fano, Italy

As climate change advances, the range of mosquito-borne diseases is steadily expanding into temperate regions, creating new challenges for public health. In 2024, the town of Fano in Italy’s Marche region encountered a dengue outbreak driven predominantly by local (autochthonous) transmission. This study employs a stochastic model that integrates both human and mosquito infection dynamics to unravel the outbreak’s progression. By calibrating the model with data specific to the Marche region, the analysis provides detailed quantitative insights into the mechanisms of dengue spread in temperate environments. Moreover, it contrasts these dynamics with those in other non-endemic settings, where outbreaks are mainly sparked by imported cases.