Electricity Costs and Ideological Divide : A quantitative study on electricity prices and political ideology in Europe

This study explores the relationship between rising electricity prices and shifts in individuals' ideological positions along the left-right spectrum across Europe. Using quantitative analysis of electricity price data and Eurobarometer survey responses, two hypotheses are tested. The first hypothesis, grounded in theories of redistribution and compensation, proposes that increases in electricity prices will drive individuals toward left-wing policies. The second hypothesis suggests that these price increases will affect welfare state regimes differently, with Nordic countries experiencing a stronger shift to the left, while Continental and Mediterranean countries may exhibit a weaker leftward movement or even a tilt to the right. The analysis reveals mixed support for both main hypotheses. The first hypothesis is not supported, as the relationship loses statistical significance when country fixed effects are introduced. The second hypothesis presents unexpected results, as the Nordic countries, anticipated to be the most left-leaning, does not demonstrate the most pronounced leftward shift. Instead, the Continental countries exhibit the strongest move to the left. These findings suggest that increases in electricity prices may influence ideological preferences differently across welfare state regimes. However, further research is required to provide stronger evidence and draw definitive conclusions.