China’s Belt and Road Initiative in East Africa: Debt, Sovereignty, and Agency in Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya

This thesis explores the concept of "debt-trap diplomacy" in the context of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Africa through case studies of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Debt-trap diplomacy posits that creditor nations strategically issue unsustainable loans to extract political or economic concessions. This study examines lending mechanisms, project outcomes, and sovereign responses to assess the validity of this claim. The research uses a comparative case study approach, analyzing key factors such as debt sustainability, project viability, governance, and diversification of partnerships. Data from infrastructure projects like Djibouti's Doraleh Port, Ethiopia's industrial parks, and Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway are evaluated to determine the interplay between Chinese financing and African sovereignty. Djibouti’s heavy dependence on Chinese loans and governance issues suggest high vulnerability to external influence. Ethiopia and Kenya, in contrast, demonstrate agency through debt renegotiations, diversified financing, and strategic alignment of projects with national goals. While concerns over debt sustainability persist, there is limited evidence of deliberate debt entrapment by China. Instead, the findings emphasize the active role of African nations in shaping their financial relationships. This research concludes that the risks associated with Chinese financing can be managed through greater transparency, robust governance, and diversified partnerships, offering a nuanced perspective on debt-trap diplomacy and its implications for sustainable development in Africa.