Autopsia del asalto a la frontera de Ceuta en 2021: entre la zona gris y la gestión de crisis

This paper analyses a significant incident that took place on the border of Ceuta between 17 and 19 May 2021, when more than 10,000 people entered the Spanish city from Morocco without authorisation, causing the most serious border crisis experienced in the city during the democratic era. The article begins with a diplomatic contextualisation of the crisis, linked to the deterioration of relations between Spain and Morocco, and sets out its immediate background. It then describes the development of the assault on the Ceuta border in all its relevant aspects. The incident is then analysed from three perspectives. The first offers a strategic reading of the border crisis, based on the hypothesis that the crisis should be interpreted as the result of an operation promoted by the Kingdom of Morocco, within the framework of an escalation in the grey zone, with the aim of influencing Spanish foreign policy. The second perspective offers a detailed analysis of the different phases and dimensions of the border crisis management process. This analysis is based on the hypothesis that, at the time of the crisis, the Spanish state did not have specific mechanisms and protocols in place to deal with incidents that could jeopardise the integrity of either of the two Spanish cities in North Africa, Ceuta or Melilla. The third perspective applies two approaches from the social sciences: the black swan and the gray rhino. The article concludes with an assessment of the diplomatic consequences of the border crisis and a reflection on its strategic implications for Spanish security policy.