Beslutsfattande under osäkerhet i tekniska utvecklingsprojekt – En fallstudie på Valmet

Technical projects often involve large investments under unknown conditions, where a number of different factors such as risks, opportunities, costs and organizational impacts must be weighed. This study has been carried out at Valmet in the form of a Case and aims to investigate the end of projects by combining the ROAM model (RiskOpportunity Analysis Method) and NP (Analytic Network Process). By creating a network of threats, opportunities, benefits and costs and linking these to decision alternatives, models are able to quantify how alternatives affect operations. This applies not only from an economic perspective but also in terms of risk (stress) and strain. The study examined two alternatives, which are new technology, and also retaining and existing technology. The result shows that new technology has both a higher stress and strain compared to existing technology. This means that the alternative needs more resources and is a riskier one, which leads to a weaker choice. The study also shows that decision-making should not only be based on technical potential or cost assessments, but also their capacity to be able to handle strain and risks over time. The model thus offers a more comprehensive decision-making basis and shows that methods such as ROAM and ANP can be used to create practical and relevant support for decisions regarding technology selection in industrial environments.