Balances of weakness:Syria's Post-Assad security sector governance

Syria today finds itself in a post-Assad but not post-war phase. While the regime has fallen, the country remains fractured, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—now in control of Damascus—faces the immense challenge of consolidating power. A unified command and control structure is essential for political, economic, and social reconstruction. To establish order and form a national army, HTS must either coerce or persuade other factions— including Kurdish, Druze, and southern groups—to disarm and accept its rule. However, the HTS lacks the military strength, economic resources, and political legitimacy to enforce or incentivize such unification. More concerning is that HTS appears to be pursuing a statist, victory-driven approach to unification, reminiscent of Assad's failed strategy. Like Assad, HTS shows little willingness to share power or accommodate the political demands of rival actors. Syria's historical pattern of deep internal fragmentation and repeated violations of its sovereignty by external powers continues to shape its post-war trajectory. The presence of foreign actors—Turkey, Israel, the United States, and Russia—exploits this fragmented landscape, further undermining the emergence of a stable and sovereign Syrian state. This paper argues that the path to lasting peace lies in inclusive political governance that reflects Syria's social and ideological diversity, and in restoring national sovereignty through mutual restraint by international actors. Without these foundations, Syria is likely to remain trapped in a cycle of instability, fragmentation, and foreign interference.