Análisis de riesgo bursátil y modelo de predicción de las acciones de la empresa Holcim S.A. En el periodo 2018-2023.

This study focuses on examining fluctuations in Holcim's share prices on the stock market,with the aim of developing an econometric model that allows observing and forecasting price variability. Theresearch focuses on analyzing the company's performance based on daily prices, during the periods from 2018to 2023, which reflects declines due to financial health factors and external factors such as the pandemic. In addition, aprediction of future value is made for the next 150 days. The results show that Holcim shares exhibitmoderate volatility. Therefore, investors in Holcim should be prepared to assume a certain degree of risk dueto the variability in share prices. The ARIMA (25,1,6) model suggests a promising approach to forecasting actual prices, while the GARCH (1,1) volatility model effectively incorporates past conditional variances and forecasts an expected return of 0.0124% for July 11. Its impact can increase significantly if it remains consistent and accumulates over time due to compound interest. Finally, the models are effective in modeling changes in volatility, especially if these changes are sudden, but they do not adequately capture structural or level changes in the data, as the stock market presents several fundamental problems such as: speculation risk, market changes, government changes, and global events.