Why is Georgia a Swing State? And the Case for Other Southern States

In 2020, Georgia, a historically red state, swung blue. This paper examines theories on why Georgia switched partisan allegiances by comparing its experience with three other Southern States: Alabama, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The paper tests theories that highlight demographic change and party mobilization as key factors in this process. Demographic changes within these states are measured through changes between 2000 and 2020 in the Black population as well as the overall minority population in each of the four states. Party mobilization is measured by candidate recruitment, party resources, and party registration efforts. The paper concludes that Georgia’s demographic shifts and effective mobilization strategies are also reflected in North Carolina, with both states becoming key battlegrounds in national elections; whereas, Mississippi and Alabama dramatically lag in both of these crucial areas, cementing them firmly as red states for the time being.