Utility-Scale Solar in Virginia – Current Trends and Future Impacts

Electricity demand is soaring in Virginia, driven largely by the state’s booming data center industry. As the country’s cheapest source of new electricity supply, utility-scale solar (USS) is crucial to meeting this growing need. Virginia has become a leading state for utility-scale solar development, and USS is projected to provide a substantial percentage of Virginia’s future electricity supply. Concerns about the impacts of solar development, particularly on farm and forest land, is among the factors leading some localities to reject USS local land-use permits, and/or adopt more restrictive permitting regimes. This trend towards more restrictive local permitting may threaten the state’s ability to meet rising electricity demand and accomplish its carbon-reduction goals under the Virginia Clean Economy Act. The purpose of this report is to help inform public-sector decision-making about state and local-level utility-scale solar policy in Virginia. The report includes the following components: Analysis of recent USS development trends in the U.S. and Virginia Discussion of the benefits of USS for local communities Identification of future USS development scenarios for Virginia, defined by the potential percentage of statewide electricity consumption provided by USS in the year 2035 Estimation of the impacts of each future USS development scenario, in terms of total disturbed acres, percent of statewide farm and forestland impacted, etc. Review of current local-level USS permitting approaches, and potential state policies around USS permitting reform