Structural Power and State Capacity : Hierarchical Global Orders in the U.S.-China Geoeconomic Rivalry

As the escalation in trade rivalry between the U.S. and China is fragmenting the globalized order, it resuscitates questions about the spatial calculus of power. These invigorate debates on the limits and reaches of economic interdependence and draw closer attention to the domestic capacities of states. The rivalry’s geoeconomic context, however, defies traditional measures and theories of power and leaves questions about multipolarity and impending global order shifts unresolved. This thesis examines the role of state capacities in the formation of global orders. My empirical analysis offers novel multidimensional measures that correspond to the rivalry’s geoeconomic context. I construct a productivity-adjusted measure of state capacity and approximate structural power by trade intensity in value-added goods. A time-series hierarchical cluster analysis and hierarchical mixed-effects model add a dynamic dimension to the comparative research on great power rivalry. The results reveal state capacity’s significant impact on structural power and, in turn, on global order formations. They highlight that geoeconomic pressures on states under the U.S.-China rivalry are not uniform; instead, they co-evolve alongside strategic regional clusters that split the world order into bipolar camps. As low-capacity states seek risk aversion in strategic security alliances, a hierarchical global order emerges.