Research on Passenger Flow Forecast of Tourist-dedicated Train Based on System Dynamics

Reasonable and effective passenger flow forecasting is a prerequisite for the initial investment planning of tourist-dedicated train projects, improving operational efficiency and market competitiveness.Based on the classification and analysis of tourist-dedicated train passenger flow, this paper introduces the theory of system dynamics to forecast the passenger flow of tourist-dedicated train.The system dynamics equation of passenger flow forecasting is constructed, and the causal loop diagram and system flow diagram of the forecasting system are analyzed.The development of tourist-dedicated train passenger flow is forecasted by two examples of different scales.The research results show that the system dynamics method is feasible and applicable for the passenger flow forecasting of the tourist-dedicated train, and the introduction of this method provides a new theoretical reference for the study of this problem.