Poverty Decline in India after 2011-12:Bigger Picture Evidence

The absence of official poverty estimates after 2011–12 has led to a new debate about the recent evolution of poverty in India. Reviewing the existing estimates of consumption-based poverty after 2011–12, it is argued that a slowing of poverty reduction after 2011–12 is most likely. A variety of complementary indicators of poverty in India are assembled and probed, focusing on trends in aggregate income, as well as wages, earnings, and employment. Given the absence of a clear resolution to the vexed issues of non-comparability of consumption over time and space, choice of poverty lines and price deflators, a precise assessment of poverty decline remains pending. However, there are sufficient grounds for concern, and a doubling-down on poverty reduction efforts is clearly warranted.