Military Spending and Economic Growth: A 2025 Update

The start of the second millennium brought a growing sense that capitalism was becoming more ‘authoritarian’ and ‘illiberal’, with various indicators suggesting that ‘democracy’ is waning around the globe, that the protection of human and civil rights is in retreat and that the number and intensity of military conflicts is on the rise. This angst is now greatly amplified by the domestic and foreign policies of the new Trump administration. Having returned to office in early 2025, Trump promptly launched a highly publicized crusade against his country’s ‘deep state’, with blasé disregard for its laws and con-stitution; announced his intentions to retreat from his country’s traditional postwar role as leader and protector of the Western world; and embarked on seemingly unhinged acts against friends (Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Panama and, primarily, Ukraine) while cozying up to long-term foes (Russia). One possible consequence of this growing angst is a global ‘arms race’.