Incerteza político-econômica, agressividade tributária e o efeito moderador do mercado de crédito nas empresas de capital aberto listadas na B³

Objective: This study analyzes the tax aggressiveness of Brazilian non-financial public companies in conditions of political-economic uncertainty and under the influence of the credit market. Method: This study uses quantitative approach. The sample consists of 4,749 observations over 2011-2022. As metrics of political-economic uncertainty, two indices were used at the Brazilian level: the EPU and the IIE-Br. For tax aggressiveness, the variables used were ETR, BTD and CTRIB-DVA, Permanent BTD and Differential ETR. As for the credit market, the metric used was the “Quarterly Survey of Credit Conditions in Brazil” indicator. Results: The regression results indicate that companies are more tax aggressive when there is an increase in political-economic uncertainty and that the supply of credit moderates this relationship. Contributions: The evidence helps investors, tax administrations and government agents to understand the behavior regarding the tax aggressiveness of companies in the face of increased political-economic uncertainty and its implications in the credit market and thus better define the public policy.