Eye of the Storm : The effects of foreign humanitarian aid on conflict intensity following a natural disaster

This study examines the relationship between foreign humanitarian aid and the intensity of intrastate armed conflict following natural disasters, focusing on two case studies: Typhoon Durian (2006) and Typhoon Washi (2011) in the Philippines. The analysis is framed by a theoretical argument proposing that foreign aid from democratic actors post-disaster de-escalates conflict by restricting rebel opportunities, although increasing grievances. The findings indicate no conclusive evidence that foreign aid significantly reduced conflict intensity in either case, primarily due to methodological limitations and confounding variables. Nonetheless, the research highlights the potential for future studies to refine methods and explore the nuanced impacts of aid on conflict dynamics. Lastly, the study underscores the complexity of the aid-conflict nexus and the need for improved methods in research to help policymakers in optimizing humanitarian interventions.