Finansiella drivkrafters inflytande på svenska bankaktier  : En kvantitativ analys av perioden 2015–2024

This thesis investigates the relationship between key macroeconomic drivers and the quarterly returns of Swedish bank stocks during the period 2015–2024. Using a quantitative research design and multiple linear regression analysis, the study examines the effects of five financial variables: GDP growth, inflation, policy rate, change in policy rate, and the OMX30 stock index. The results reveal that only GDP growth has a statistically significant (negative) correlation with bank stock returns, while the other variables show no significant effects. The study highlights the limited explanatory power of traditional macroeconomic indicators in predicting Swedish bank stock performance and suggests that other sector-specific or contextual factors may play a more decisive role. The findings have practical implications for investors and policymakers and contribute to the broader discussion on the applicability of models such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in sector-specific analyses.