Evaluación de las Condiciones Climáticas y Meteorológicas en el Desarrollo de la Severidad de la Roya del Café

Climatic and meteorological factors influence the development of the coffee plant (Coffea arabica L.) and the severity of rust (Hemileia vastatrix Berk & Br). The objective of this research was to construct the baseline scenario using temperature and precipitation data from a 36-year period and to determine the influence of meteorological variables on the developmental stages of the coffee plant and rust during the 2016-2017 crop cycle. Long-term trends or cycles were analyzed with annual means of TA, PP, severity; and evapotranspiration was through a linear regression model. The wettest years were 1998 with 2704 mm, 1999 with 2639 mm, 2005 with 2035.7 mm, 2013 with 2356 mm annual average, and the least rainy was 2012 with 951.09 mm. The annual averages of temperature and precipitation had a downward trend with respect to the 1992 average. Rainfall (PP), environmental evapotranspiration (ETP), ambient temperature (TA) and relative humidity (RH) favored the severity of coffee rust. The total cumulative degree days (GDA) for coffee phenological stages was 3696.3; and for rust severity it was 2237.2 GDA. The comparison of GDA with severity had a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.80; the comparison of RH with severity (R2) of 0.70, and the comparison of GDA with ETP (R2) of 0.99. Finally, the coffee-growing area turned out to be a tropical rainforest with a dry period in winter. The results show that the use of the accumulated degree days model is very feasible for the prediction of biological events.