Determinants of Profitability in UAE Banks (2019-2023): An Analysis and Forecast for the Next Five Years

This study aims to analyze the factors that led to the banks' profitability in UAE from 2019 to 2023 based on factors such as capital adequacy, asset quality, and liquidity. With these factors and Return on Assets, the study seeks to determine the link between the variables affecting financial performance in the banking sector. The study relies on quantitative data from UAE banks to include statistical analysis and construct predictive models. The relationships between the variables are established using Multiple Linear Regression. At the same time, Random Forest Algorithms explore Non-Linear Interactions and Time Series Analysis using ARIMA models to forecast profitability trends. This analytical framework helps to understand the current dynamics and project scenarios for the next five years. It will accustom financial institutions and policymakers in the UAE with information relating to factors that express banks' profitability. The trend analysis will add a dynamic viewpoint on the ongoing changes in the banking sector, possible threats, and opportunities in the future. The study's findings offer valuable insights into the determinants of banking profitability in emerging markets. Thus, the proposal focuses on the UAE as an important financial center, allowing for observing local processes and identifying general tendencies applicable to other areas. The results will help UAE banks improve their financial performance efficiency and offer helpful information for global financial institutions and researchers intending to study the related markets. Thus, this study closes the gap between academic research and practical application by presenting recommendations for the banking sector to increase its resilience and profitability in the face of constant economic disturbances and regulatory modifications.