Determinación del riesgo agroclimático futuro en la zona norte de la provincia de Los Ríos, Ecuador

The present study aimed to determine the future agroclimatic risk in the northern area of the province of Los Ríos, Ecuador, for the period2020-2040, using climate models and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Through the MIROC-ES2L model and the SSP1 (sustainability) and SSP5 (fossil fuels) scenarios, changes in precipitation and temperature were projected, identifying an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts and heavy rains. The results indicate that the cantons of Buena Fe, Valencia and Ventanas will be the most affected by these changes, with precipitation ranging between 313 mm and 465 mm, and maximum temperatures exceeding 31°C. The evaluation of evapotranspiration using the Thornthwaite method revealed that the cantons of Mocache and Ventanas have the highest values, suggesting a higher demand for water for crops and greater agroclimatic vulnerability. On the other hand, the canton of Valencia shows a lower susceptibility to water loss, making it less vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In response to these findings, adaptation measures were proposed, such as the incorporation of composters, reforestation of water sources and crop diversification. These strategies seek to improve the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change and reduce dependence on unsustainable practices, such as the excessive use of chemical fertilizers. In conclusion, this research highlights the importance of implementing sustainable agricultural practices and strengthening public policies related to climate change adaptation in the province of Los Ríos. In addition, the creation of a local climate monitoring system and the training of farmers in adaptation techniques are recommended to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability.