Brecha entre delincuencia real y percepción de inseguridad en España (2016–2024): un estudio longitudinal

This research analyzes the discrepancy between the actual crime rate and citizens' perception of insecurity in Spain during the period 2016–2024. Data from the barometers of the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), which measure mentions of “citizen insecurity” as a national and personal concern, are compared with the crime rate recorded in the Criminality Reports of the Ministry of the Interior. The results indicate that, after a moderate convergent increase between 2016 and 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) led to a sharp decline in both crime rates and public concern. In 2022–2023, crime levels reached historical highs, driven by cybercrime, yet social concern did not increase proportionally. The correlation coefficient between both data series was not significant, revealing a perception–reality gap. The study concludes that media and political discourse play a decisive role in shaping fear of crime, highlighting the need for more effective preventive policies.