Bitcoin i svenska pensionsportföljer : Potential och begränsningar i ett volatilt tillgångsslag

Inflation and currency risks constitute two major threats to value stability in long-term investments. As traditional assets are increasingly challenged and interest in alternative investments grows, the question arises: can Bitcoin play a role in this? This study examines whether Bitcoin can serve as an effective hedge against inflation and currency risks within the framework of the Swedish pension system. Using regression analyses, VAR models and portfolio optimizations, Bitcoin’s role across different market environments is evaluated. The results show that, despite its reputation as "digital gold," Bitcoin does not function as a reliable hedge. Instead, Bitcoin is characterized by high volatility and speculative behavior, creating significant risks for long-term investors. At the same time, the findings indicate that a small allocation to Bitcoin can improve a portfolio’s return, but only under specific market conditions and if the associated risk is accepted. The study also highlights the legal and practical barriers that must be overcome before Bitcoin can naturally be incorporated into pension savings. Bitcoin may be exciting, but it falls short as a stable hedge, volatility remains high, and the risks substantial.