Analysis of Potential Energy Transition Schemes in Hungary: From Natural Gas to Electricity

Hungary, as a landlocked nation with limited raw material resources, faces significant challenges in ensuring a stable energy supply, necessitating extensive interconnectors with neighbouring countries for gas, oil, and electricity. While progress has been made, especially in electricity interconnections, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the EU’s decarbonisation goals for 2050 introduce new pressures on energy security. Hungary's energy trilemma—balancing access and affordability, environmental targets, and security—guides its strategy as it seeks an optimal energy mix. By 2050, energy demand is projected to hold steady at 210 TWh, though the current 65 % fossil fuel share, largely imported, highlights Hungary’s vulnerabilities (exposure to risks and insecurities in its energy supply). Goals include net-zero emissions, reduced foreign dependency, and manageable energy costs, with targets to reduce gas consumption to 4×109 m3 (1.5 ×109 m3) and ensure over 50 % of the energy mix is carbon-neutral electricity. The paper examines three key actions based on statistical data to achieve these targets: (a) reducing natural gas dependency, (b) boosting domestic alternative sources like local gas production and green solutions, and (c) enhancing energy system flexibility through regulation, storage, and generation. These strategies are assessed for their potential to satisfy the trilemma’s demands and provide a resilient path forward amidst evolving challenges.