Methodology of scenario planning for post-war reconstruction of Ukraine

The process of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine should be based on international cooperation and funding, similar to the Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Germany and Europe after World War II. The unstable conditions of the project's financial, labour, and material support expected due to the large number of project sponsors do not allow for their effective planning using the traditional technique of planned calculations. Therefore, when planning and controlling the processes of post-war recovery in Ukraine, it is proposed to use the scenario planning methodology, which provides for the determination of scenarios for further project implementation within the established timeframe at each stage of planned calculations, taking into account the results of previous stages. The target function of scenario planning for Ukraine's post-war recovery processes is determined at each planning stage on the basis of recursive functions, i.e. those whose value at each iteration depends on the values obtained at the previous iteration. At each planning stage, a current balance should be maintained between the financial assessment of the next volumes of capital investment and the amount of expected financial resources. Accordingly, the possibility of timely implementation of the project is based on the timely involvement of a sufficient number of labour resources, both from among Ukrainian citizens who remained in the country and those who will return after the end of the war, as well as those who will be involved from among foreign citizens, in the implementation of the planned volumes of capital investments. Control over project completion dates in the planning process is carried out by monitoring the moments of application of scenarios that lead to a delay in project completion beyond the permissible timeframe. To do this, a tool is introduced to identify bifurcation points on the timeline, which are the extreme points in time of the scenarios that make it impossible to complete the project on time.