Decision making in uncertainty: the case of ship flooding

One critical aspect of a progressive flooding scenario on a ship is that its crew is uncertain regarding the water ingress rate. Furthermore, the calculation of residual ship stability and structural strength may be very challenging in the absence of ship-specific software. For this reason, this paper presents a decision-making methodology to deal with the option of an early abandoning of a bulk carrier in a flooding emergency. This study used a review of 25 cases from 15 years involving bulk carriers for hazard analysis. Then, a simulation was carried to four ships to identify the changes caused by progressive flooding of various cargo holds in the ship's trim, allowable strength and the time allowable to react. The importance of the ballast pump and water ingress alarm maintenance was also shown. The methodology is useful for ship operators to prepare ship-specific flooding contingency plans for crew familiarization in dealing with uncertain conditions.