ASSESSMENT OF THE STATISTICAL PROBABILITY OF NEGATIVE COMBINATIONS OF IMBALANCES IN THE BALANCING GROUP AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIC EFFECT

The article is devoted to a detailed analysis of the features of participation in balancing groups, considering them as an innovative mechanism for reducing the costs of natural gas suppliers on commercial balancing. The work carefully studied various situations that may arise within the functioning of the balancing group, assessed the probability of each of them, and classified them according to their contribution to the overall economic effect. In particular, the situations were divided into neutral, positive and negative depending on their impact on the economic efficiency of the group members. The article also elaborates several options for terms of participation in the balancing group, each of which can be financially beneficial for participants depending on additional factors and circumstances. Special attention is paid to the demonstration of how different models of participation in balancing groups can contribute to reducing the costs of natural gas suppliers for commercial balancing, which opens perspectives for optimizing operating costs in the conditions of changes in the market. The article notes that further research is needed to develop clear criteria for admitting new members to balancing groups, as this may affect the economic effect of the balancing group. In addition, the importance of studying additional factors that can influence the probability of occurrence of both positive and negative situations is emphasized. Such factors include air alarms and power outages, which can affect the operation of the natural gas market and, accordingly, the efficiency of balancing. Thus, the article examines participation in balancing groups in the natural gas market, in particular the issues of improving governance and optimizing participation in these groups. Examining the impact of external factors, such as power outages and other risks, can provide the basis for further research into balancing group management approaches, which will ultimately allow natural gas suppliers to manage their resources more efficiently and reduce commercial balancing costs.