Population dynamics under random switching

Populations interact non-linearly and are influenced by environmental fluctuations. In order to have realistic mathematical models, one needs to take into account that the environmental fluctuations are inherently stochastic. Often, environmental stochasticity is modeled by systems of stochastic differential equations. However, this type of stochasticity is not always the best suited for ecological modeling. Instead, biological systems can be modeled using piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP). For a PDMP the process follows the flow of a system of ordinary differential equations for a random time, after which the environment switches to a different state, where the dynamics is given by a different system of differential equations. Then this is repeated. The current paper is devoted to the study of the dynamics of $n$ populations described by $n$-dimensional Kolmogorov PDMP. We provide sharp conditions for persistence and extinction, based on the invasion rates (Lyapunov exponents) of the ergodic probability measures supported on the boundary of the positive orthant. In order to showcase the applicability of our results, we apply the theory in some interesting ecological examples.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-07-25
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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article
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article

Population dynamics under random switching

ArXiv.org
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
article

Population dynamics under random switching

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Abstract

Populations interact non-linearly and are influenced by environmental fluctuations. In order to have realistic mathematical models, one needs to take into account that the environmental fluctuations are inherently stochastic. Often, environmental stochasticity is modeled by systems of stochastic differential equations. However, this type of stochasticity is not always the best suited for ecological modeling. Instead, biological systems can be modeled using piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP). For a PDMP the process follows the flow of a system of ordinary differential equations for a random time, after which the environment switches to a different state, where the dynamics is given by a different system of differential equations. Then this is repeated. The current paper is devoted to the study of the dynamics of $n$ populations described by $n$-dimensional Kolmogorov PDMP. We provide sharp conditions for persistence and extinction, based on the invasion rates (Lyapunov exponents) of the ergodic probability measures supported on the boundary of the positive orthant. In order to showcase the applicability of our results, we apply the theory in some interesting ecological examples.

ArXiv.org
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Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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