Crisis in time-dependent dynamical systems

Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space due to the crossing of the boundary of the basin of attraction. We find that crises occur also in non-autonomous systems although the underlying mechanism is more complex. We show that in the vicinity of the transition, the escape probability scales as $\exp[-\alpha (\ln \delta)^2]$, where $\delta$ is the distance from the critical point, while $\alpha$ is a model-dependent parameter. This prediction is tested and verified in a few different systems, including the Kuramoto model with inertia, where the crisis controls the loss of stability of a chimera state.