Can social capital remedy structural inequality? Economic mobility in a longitudinal population-scale social network

The promise of equal opportunity is a cornerstone of modern societies, yet upward economic mobility remains out of reach for many. Using a decade of population-scale social network data from the Netherlands, covering over a billion family, school, workplace, and neighborhood ties, we examine how structural inequality and social capital jointly shape economic trajectories. Parental background is a strong early predictor of economic outcomes, but its influence fades over time. In contrast, bridging social capital is what positively predicts long-term mobility, particularly for economically disadvantaged groups. Reducing the dimensionality of an individual's network composition, we identify two key dimensions: exposure to affluent contacts and socioeconomic diversity of one's network. These are sufficient to capture the core aspects of social capital that matter for economic mobility. Overall, our findings demonstrate that while inherited advantage shapes the starting point of economic trajectory, social capital can powerfully reshape it, especially for the poor.