Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation

Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-04-02
Primary Topic
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Type
article
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article

Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation

ArXiv.org
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
article

Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation

article en

Abstract

Proper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules including general characterization results and important families of scoring rules. We discuss their role in statistics and machine learning for estimation and forecast evaluation. Furthermore, we comment on interesting developments of their usage in applications.

ArXiv.org
Openalex Percentile: Top 42%
Forecasting Techniques and Applications
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Proper scoring rules for estimation and forecast evaluation · ArXiv.org (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS