Degradation-Aware and Machine Learning-Driven Uncertainty Quantification in Crystal Plasticity Finite Element: Texture-Driven Plasticity in 316L Stainless Steel

The mechanical properties and long-term structural reliability of crystalline materials are strongly influenced by microstructural features such as grain size, morphology, and crystallographic texture. These characteristics not only determine the initial mechanical behavior but also govern the progression of degradation mechanisms, such as strain localization, fatigue damage, and microcrack initiation under service conditions. Variability in these microstructural attributes, introduced during manufacturing or evolving through in-service degradation, leads to uncertainty in material performance. Therefore, understanding and quantifying microstructure-sensitive plastic deformation is critical for assessing degradation risk in high-value mechanical systems. This study presents a first-of-its-kind machine learning-driven framework that couples high-fidelity crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations with data-driven surrogate modeling to accelerate degradation-aware uncertainty quantification in welded structural alloys. Specifically, the impact of crystallographic texture variability in 316L stainless steel weldments, characterized via high-throughput electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), is examined through CPFE simulations on calibrated representative volume elements (RVEs). A polynomial chaos expansion-based surrogate model is then trained to efficiently emulate the CPFE response using only 200 simulations, reducing computational cost by several orders of magnitude compared to conventional Monte Carlo analysis. The surrogate enables rapid quantification of uncertainty in stress-strain behavior and identifies texture components such as Cube and Goss as key drivers of degradation-relevant plastic response.