The undetectable fraction of core-collapse supernovae in luminous infrared galaxies

A large fraction of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) in luminous infrared galaxies (LIRGs) remain undetected due to extremely high line-of-sight host galaxy dust extinction, and strong contrast between the SN and the galaxy background in the central regions of LIRGs, where the star formation is concentrated. This fraction of undetected CCSNe, unaccounted for by typical extinction corrections, is an important factor in determining CCSN rates, in particular at redshifts $z \gtrsim 1$, where LIRGs dominate the cosmic star formation. Our aim is to derive a robust estimate for the undetected fraction of CCSNe in LIRGs in the local Universe. Our study is based on the K-band multi-epoch SUNBIRD survey data set of a sample of eight LIRGs using the Gemini-North Telescope with the ALTAIR/NIRI laser guide star adaptive optics system. We used simulated SNe and a standard image subtraction method to determine limiting detection magnitudes for the data set. Subsequently, we used a Monte Carlo method to combine the limiting magnitudes with the survey cadence, and an adopted distribution of CCSN subtypes and their light curve evolution to determine SN detection probabilities. Lastly, we combined these probabilities with the intrinsic CCSN rates of the sample galaxies estimated based on their detailed radiative transfer modeling to derive the fraction of undetectable CCSNe in local LIRGs. For high angular resolution near-infrared surveys, we find an undetectable fraction of $66.0^{+8.6}_{-14.6}$\%, assuming that CCSNe with host extinctions up to $A_V$ = 16 mag are detectable, corresponding to the most obscured CCSN discovered in our data set. Alternatively, assuming a host extinction limit of $A_V$ = 3 mag, corresponding to typical optical surveys, we find an undetectable CCSN fraction of $89.7^{+2.6}_{-4.4}$\%.