The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining MITA: Double Machine Learning Approach

This study examines the long-term economic impact of the colonial Mita system in Peru, building on Melissa Dell's foundational work on the enduring effects of forced labor institutions. The Mita, imposed by the Spanish colonial authorities from 1573 to 1812, required indigenous communities within a designated boundary to supply labor to mines, primarily near Potosi. Dell's original regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis, leveraging the Mita boundary to estimate the Mita's legacy on modern economic outcomes, indicates that regions subjected to the Mita exhibit lower household consumption levels and higher rates of child stunting. In this paper, I replicate Dell's results and extend this analysis. I apply Double Machine Learning (DML) methods--the Partially Linear Regression (PLR) model and the Interactive Regression Model (IRM)--to further investigate the Mita's effects. DML allows for the inclusion of high-dimensional covariates and enables more flexible, non-linear modeling of treatment effects, potentially capturing complex relationships that a polynomial-based approach may overlook. While the PLR model provides some additional flexibility, the IRM model allows for fully heterogeneous treatment effects, offering a nuanced perspective on the Mita's impact across regions and district characteristics. My findings suggest that the Mita's economic legacy is more substantial and spatially heterogeneous than originally estimated. The IRM results reveal that proximity to Potosi and other district-specific factors intensify the Mita's adverse impact, suggesting a deeper persistence of regional economic inequality. These findings underscore that machine learning addresses the realistic non-linearity present in complex, real-world systems. By modeling hypothetical counterfactuals more accurately, DML enhances my ability to estimate the true causal impact of historical interventions.