Revealed Bayesian Persuasion

How does one test empirically the hypothesis that a decision maker (DM) is being influenced by information via Bayesian persuasion? In this paper, I consider a DM whose state-dependent preferences are known to an analyst, who sees the conditional distribution of choices given the state. I provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the dataset to be consistent with the DM being Bayesian persuaded by an unobserved sender who generates a distribution of signals to ex-ante optimize the sender's expected payoff. I thereby provide a tool for empirical work on information design.

Publication Details

Journal
ArXiv.org
Published
2025-04-02
Primary Topic
Game Theory and Applications
Type
article
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article

Revealed Bayesian Persuasion

ArXiv.org
Game Theory and Applications
article

Revealed Bayesian Persuasion

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Abstract

How does one test empirically the hypothesis that a decision maker (DM) is being influenced by information via Bayesian persuasion? In this paper, I consider a DM whose state-dependent preferences are known to an analyst, who sees the conditional distribution of choices given the state. I provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the dataset to be consistent with the DM being Bayesian persuaded by an unobserved sender who generates a distribution of signals to ex-ante optimize the sender's expected payoff. I thereby provide a tool for empirical work on information design.

ArXiv.org
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 42%
Game Theory and Applications
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Revealed Bayesian Persuasion · ArXiv.org (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS