Housing submarket spillovers and COVID-19: the increasing influence of Australia’s regional cities

We document a significant change in the relationship between metropolitan and regional house prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given regional centres are spatially disconnected in Australia, we introduce a novel approach to defining submarkets based on common amenity. Treating the COVID-19 pandemic period as a negative shock to urban demand, we find that metropolitan areas became net recipients of house price volatility, while regional markets became net influencers during the pandemic, reversing the pre-COVID-19 submarket spillover pattern. This paper provides an economic context for ongoing regional housing unaffordability and discusses current policy responses that should be considered to address these challenges.