Bracing for a Softwood Lumber Supply Shock

This Executive Briefing on Trade examines the possible impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the global supply of softwood lumber (SWL), particularly in Europe, which has implications for the U.S. market. Softwood lumber is critical to the U.S. economy, as it is key to new home construction. In the wake of pandemic-related economic and transportation disruptions and environmental issues, U.S. homebuilders were projecting that supply chain shortages and material price volatility would begin to ease. Unfortunately, these projections did not anticipate Russia invading Ukraine in February 2022, subsequent Western sanctions against Russia, and Russia banning wood product exports in retaliation. Although the U.S. market is not directly reliant on Russian SWL, U.S. home builders are now bracing for more cost increases and delays