Strategic Disruption: Opportunities to Counter Russian Paramilitary Expeditions within Sub-Saharan Africa

Russian paramilitary operations, activities, and investments are on full display in sub-Saharan Africa, principally through the Wagner Group and its post-2023 successor Africa Corps. Pursuant to Russian grand strategy, the employment of such private military companies exploits natural resources, fuels ongoing conflicts, and promotes authoritarian regimes. Simultaneously, it seeks advantages for access, basing, and overflight while destabilising nations such as Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan. The Kremlin’s decisions, post Prigozhin-led mutiny, resulted in a paradigm shift of these organisations within sub-Saharan Africa creating various opportunities for the U.S. and their allies to erode Russia’s influence and reinforce a rules–based international order. This study may be of interest to the Baltic nations and Finland as NATO’s first line of defence against Russian advancement as well as the Caucasus and Moldova as potential targets of further Russian expansionism.