EXCHANGE RATE, INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND SAVINGS IN NIGERIA: AN ASYMMETRIC APPROACH

Abstract This study investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation uncertainty on savings behavior in Nigeria, employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The results indicate that positive cumulative changes in inflation uncertainty, as measured by the GARCH-based conditional variance of inflation, negatively impact savings. Rising inflation uncertainty forces households to allocate more resources toward immediate consumption, particularly during periods of food scarcity and insecurity. However, a reduction in inflation uncertainty does not lead to an immediate increase in savings, as households remain skeptical of long-term economic stability. Additionally, past currency depreciations have a lasting negative effect on savings, as people expect further currency depreciation. These findings are interpreted within the frameworks of the Precautionary Savings Theory, Life-Cycle Hypothesis, and Permanent Income Hypothesis, offering insights into the complex dynamics between exchange rate volatility, inflation uncertainty, and savings behavior in Nigeria.