AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RELIABILITY OF POLLING DATA AHEAD OF FUTURE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

The accuracy of polling data has been a subject of intense debate in recent years, particularly in the wake of high-profile misses in the 2016 and 2024 United States of America’s presidential elections despite polls indicating a high likelihood of a Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris victory, Trump won in both elections. This study provides an assessment of the reliability of polling data ahead of presidential election polls in the United States of America. Contemporary polling faces numerous challenges, including declining response rates, the rise of non-probability internet samples, and increasing concerns about survey error. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis of polling data from the 2016 presidential election to the 2024 presidential election with qualitative insights from expert interviews as both elections provide opportunities to examine the reliability of polling data in a more contemporary context. The quantitative analysis assesses the accuracy of polling data in predicting election outcomes, while the qualitative component explores the challenges and limitations of polling in the contemporary media landscape. The study adopted structural functional theory as developed by sociologists such as Émile Durkheim (1893) and Talcott Parsons (1949), emphasizes the interconnectedness of social structures and institutions in maintaining social order. The study concludes that there is the need for caution when interpreting polling data and underscores the importance of continued research into the challenges facing contemporary polling. The study recommends that the public should be cautious when interpreting polling data and recognize the potential limitations and biases of polling estimates