Government Expenditure and Agricultural Output in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (1993–2023)

This study examines the impact of government expenditure on agricultural output in Nigeria from 1993 to 2023. It investigates whether public spending significantly influenced the performance of the agricultural sector during the period. Anchored on one research question and a null hypothesis, the study employed a quantitative ex-post facto design using secondary time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Key variables included recurrent and capital expenditures on agriculture, total government expenditure, and agricultural output, all adjusted to constant naira. Data were collected using a validated extraction template and analyzed through Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression, alongside descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings indicated a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between government expenditure on agriculture and agricultural output (p > 0.05). Recurrent expenditure had minimal effect, while capital expenditure, though potentially more effective, was undermined by policy inconsistencies and poor implementation. The study concludes that Nigeria’s public agricultural spending structure and execution have not sufficiently enhanced sectoral productivity, mainly due to systemic inefficiencies and weak institutional capacity. It recommends a strategic reform of agricultural financing to prioritize capital investments in rural infrastructure, mechanization, and agricultural extension services. Additionally, improving fiscal discipline, policy consistency, and transparency in budget execution is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of public investment and achieving sustainable agricultural development.