Mixed-Use Skies: Dynamic Risk Cells and Performance-Contracted Integration of Spacecraft into Global Air Traffic

Commercial space launches and reentries trigger large, time-varying airspace restrictionsthat disrupt en-route flows. We propose a performance-contracted alternative—Dynamic RiskCells (DRC)—that replaces static hazard polygons with time-sliced, confidence-gated cellsgenerated by a Trajectory Inference and Uncertainty (TIU) pipeline and an Aerodynamics-Driven Hazard Estimator (ADHE). The system publishes audited timers over aviation-nativetransports (AIXM on SWIM), governed by a Requirements & Safety Data Pack (RSDP) and Risk& Hazard Management Plan (RHMP). We formalize a containment guarantee for conservativegeometry simplification, specify controller-facing HMI behaviors, and define acceptance criteria(end-to-end latency P99 ≤ 2 s as an engineering SLO, shrink cadence 30 s to 60 s , ECE ≤ 0.05,immutable replays, and reductions in area–time 𝐴 · 𝑡 versus static closures). We provide areproducible 𝐴 · 𝑡 computation method, an HMI protocol (NASA–TLX, SAGAT), and standardsmappings (AIXM/D–NOTAM, FAA SWIM) to enable ANSP evaluation.