Comparing Measured and Calculated GIC for the May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm

The 10–13 May 2024 space weather events saw some of the most severe geomagnetic activity over the past 20 years, providing an event which scientists and engineers will study for decades to come. It is imperative that we use this recent event to compare the effectiveness of the various simulation models in development. Although geomagnetically induced current (GIC) estimates recorded from the storm can be accessed at any point, these measured values are sensitive to the power network configuration at the time of the event. Indeed, perishable power network data can often be lost in the weeks and months after a major Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD), for example, pertaining to power grid configuration, motivating rapid study of recent events. This research aims to collect both GIC and magnetic field data (both measured and modeled) during the Gannon storm with the future goal of comparing methods of GIC, ΔB, and electric field estimates. Firstly, GIC estimates produced by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) network simulation model for four substation locations, populated with real asset data and parameter values, were obtained, along with measured GIC and ΔB values from TVA. Next, additional measured GIC and ΔB estimates were accessed through North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)’s ERO Portal. Finally, modeled ΔB data was obtained from both the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment Model (MAGE). By comparing these various sets of data, we hope to understand the predictive effectiveness of different approaches to GIC estimation. Presented at AGU in Washington, DC on 9 December, 2024.